So we went and played poker...and again left broke. Its so gross. I don't know how to win anymore. I mean, I have statistics going back over a year saying that I'm a winning player. But I can't win anymore. I haven't had a really significant win almost at all this year. So once again we're broke with no bankroll and I'm not really sure how we're going to get one anymore. The problem I have now is wondering at what point to you just say that this can no longer be normal variance. Perhaps I really am a losing player. But I have to figure this out for myself because Catherine and I have no one who plays poker as much as we do to let us know if we're just donkey's or not. If something doesn't happen soon though I'm not sure what we're going to do.
Anyways, no bad beat stories, just a weird one: 2/3/5, 5-200 spread limit game at Bay 101. UTG straddles for 10. In this game they have a 3 raise cap in this game, so when someone straddles some of the people like to min-raise before it gets to the straddler, so they can't raise. Now, first of all, this is stupid. I saw a guy do this with pocket queens. Are you kidding me? When the buy in is 40bbs only, I'm praying the straddler raises so I can get all my chips in. To me, this is just scared poker.
Anyways, UTG +1 raises to 15, and the next players raises to 20, so its capped. A couple of more callers and its to me on the button and I find AKo. Frustrated, I call. The blinds and straddler call. So the pot is 6 or 7 ways for 20 each, about 130 in the pot. Flop comes A-A-4, rainbow. Checks to UTG +1 and he bets the max, 200. Folds to me. Now I have two thoughts going through my head. First off, I have trips with the top kicker and because of their stupid min-raise, wuss poker they have no idea what I have. So, if I were to assign them a range I am way ahead of it. I have the 3rd nuts. However, my spidey-senses are going a little crazy on this one. This guy had never bet that much like this. Its a huge over-bet. Usually these people have no concept of the size of the pot, so they are chronic under-bettors. So why is he over-betting like this now? Would he really do that with A9 or some stupid two pair hand like 88? It just doesn't make sense. Of course, this guy was a bit of a goofball, so plays that don't make sense aren't completely out of the ballpark, which we'll see soon. Two hands that make some sense are A4 and 44 because they realize that with such a big field its very possible someone has an ace, and would have a hard time folding, so they are getting huge value on a big bet. Of course, these two hands happen to be the only two that beat me.
So what to do? I wasn't ready to fold just yet, especially since no one called in between, leading me to believe that there was still an ace out there, so A-x was still in his range. However, this was a classic way ahead/way behind situation. If I'm ahead, he has, at most 4 outs, but probably 3 outs, or he's close to drawing dead. Plus if I'm ahead I will likely have no problem getting his stack if he has a decent ace or something like that, but he will probably not stack off with two pair hands after I show so much strength by continuing with this hand. On the other hand, if I'm behind I have 3 outs to the nuts. If he has A4 or 44 and I spike my king on the turn I'm getting the rest of his money. Let me also point out that he and I are the deepest stacks at the table. I had about 800 at the start of the hand and he about 650. So there is a lot of money to lose here. If he were a short stack, oh well, we just get it in and if I'm beat I'm beat. But I'm not ready to stack off here. And, with be calling and showing huge strength I'll get to see his reaction on the turn, because this guy was a bit of an emotional player, so in such a big pot he couldn't hold back. However, my gut instinct told me I was beat. That tipped the scale toward the fold, but then my stupid emotional side came in and told me that folding AK on this flop would be incredibly weak. Plus I was a little tilted from making a couple of suspect laydowns earlier in the game, so I wasn't about to be "weak" again. Not a good reason at all, but its true.
So I called the 200. As I'm calling the bettor says "I'm already boated up man". My instincts agree, but he could still be lying, so no change in plans yet. To my surprise and horror a lady in the SB called as well. Now she was a bit of a loose-aggressive bad player. So, I don't think she has a full house yet, even though its slightly possible she'd slowplay. I just didn't think it was likely she would. But I know its also unlikely she's a kamakazi. Its slightly possible she has a hand like KK or QQ that she couldn't raise with pre-flop (because of the wuss poker), but I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it. My gut feeling is that her most likely hand is an A-x that she isn't smart enough to fold. What's wrong with that you say? Well, if my read is right I know now where all four aces are and the guy who bet on the flop doesn't have one. Now he basically has 44 or some BS hand.
The turn is the 8h. Now, to squash all doubts, UTG +1 bets the max again, quickly. This alone tells me that I'm likely beat. But just to make sure he turns over 44. Shocked, I'm now faced with a math decision. I have 3 outs to the nuts, plus 3 more outs if the lady doesn't have A-8. So with 6 outs I need basically 7 to 1 pot odds to proceed. There was 130 in preflop + 600 on the flop + 200 more on the turn + plus he has 200 more in his stack that I'm likely to get if I get there with my king, but not likely to get if the 8 shows up. That leaves me with about 5.5 to 1 pot odds, not nearly enough, so I fold. The lady also folds, claiming she had AJ.
Now, this is where the fun begins, the bettor now claims that he did that because he was scared of us boating up in the hand to outdraw his. The pot was big enough, so he just wanted to take it down right then and there. I am a little tilted right now, so I inform him that this is terrible poker. Against my hand alone he's about 85% to win on the turn. With two opponents he drops down to 76%. He disagrees because he has so many cards to dodged (9 I inform him), and amazingly, people at the table are agreeing with him! WTF? Do these people hate money? For every dollar he puts in the pot on the turn and gets called he gets 1.76 back. Translate that to my stack, we had about 400 left. That means that he was entitled to $304 dollars that he didn't get because he was scared. Honestly, that's like lighting money on fire.
Oh well, I guess I can't complain too much. Because he played like a huge wuss I saved that money (a lot of good it did me). If he had played the pot like a real player here's how the hand would have gone down, he would have limped, I would have put in a big raise, which he was likely to call (maybe not). The lady would have called too. The flop would have come down as above and it would have likely been checked to me, and I would have bet a good amount, which the lady would have possibly raised, he would have either raised or called, and I would have likely got it all in because now his range is much, much wider. He would have doubled or tripled up.
Anyways, sorry this was long, but the hand was so interesting. I'm a bit frustrated that I didn't just fold the flop, but its a bit hard to lay down AK on the AA4 flop. Still though, I think I could have. I'm better than that. I lost 200 I didn't have to. And that is very frustrating.
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