How quickly things can change. A few days ago I was lamenting about our recent loss of a bankroll. Almost that very night I received news that I have a bonus heading my way from work that will be more than enough for us to start a decent bankroll. Truly it is amazing and it sounds silly to say that God would provide someone with money with which to gamble, but I really believe that is what happened. Of course, there's still a part of me that is skeptical and will remain so until the check is in my hand, but I'm sure it will come. And for the first time in a while I'm excited.
Then, perhaps as further evidence of my change of luck, I had a good day in poker yesterday. I won 1.5 buy ins in a short session in pot limit omaha 8 or better, won a short handed sng, and then cashed in a multi-table tournament. I was a little bit frustrated that I didn't get farther in the tournament, but I was crippled in a bit of a cooler when my AK ran into someone's AA. Oops. In retrospect I think I might have been able to get away from the situation losing less chips because the amount the opponent raised wasn't consistent with a steal attempt. So its a little frustrating that I didn't interpret that correctly, but I was destined to lose a very large portion of my stack on that hand unfortunately. Oh well.
Anyways, I've got some confidence back. The WSOP is starting today. Now I just want to take my girl out on a date sometime, because I miss her romance and all will be right with the world.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
When You Realize Variance is Really Just a Herpe
So we went and played poker...and again left broke. Its so gross. I don't know how to win anymore. I mean, I have statistics going back over a year saying that I'm a winning player. But I can't win anymore. I haven't had a really significant win almost at all this year. So once again we're broke with no bankroll and I'm not really sure how we're going to get one anymore. The problem I have now is wondering at what point to you just say that this can no longer be normal variance. Perhaps I really am a losing player. But I have to figure this out for myself because Catherine and I have no one who plays poker as much as we do to let us know if we're just donkey's or not. If something doesn't happen soon though I'm not sure what we're going to do.
Anyways, no bad beat stories, just a weird one: 2/3/5, 5-200 spread limit game at Bay 101. UTG straddles for 10. In this game they have a 3 raise cap in this game, so when someone straddles some of the people like to min-raise before it gets to the straddler, so they can't raise. Now, first of all, this is stupid. I saw a guy do this with pocket queens. Are you kidding me? When the buy in is 40bbs only, I'm praying the straddler raises so I can get all my chips in. To me, this is just scared poker.
Anyways, UTG +1 raises to 15, and the next players raises to 20, so its capped. A couple of more callers and its to me on the button and I find AKo. Frustrated, I call. The blinds and straddler call. So the pot is 6 or 7 ways for 20 each, about 130 in the pot. Flop comes A-A-4, rainbow. Checks to UTG +1 and he bets the max, 200. Folds to me. Now I have two thoughts going through my head. First off, I have trips with the top kicker and because of their stupid min-raise, wuss poker they have no idea what I have. So, if I were to assign them a range I am way ahead of it. I have the 3rd nuts. However, my spidey-senses are going a little crazy on this one. This guy had never bet that much like this. Its a huge over-bet. Usually these people have no concept of the size of the pot, so they are chronic under-bettors. So why is he over-betting like this now? Would he really do that with A9 or some stupid two pair hand like 88? It just doesn't make sense. Of course, this guy was a bit of a goofball, so plays that don't make sense aren't completely out of the ballpark, which we'll see soon. Two hands that make some sense are A4 and 44 because they realize that with such a big field its very possible someone has an ace, and would have a hard time folding, so they are getting huge value on a big bet. Of course, these two hands happen to be the only two that beat me.
So what to do? I wasn't ready to fold just yet, especially since no one called in between, leading me to believe that there was still an ace out there, so A-x was still in his range. However, this was a classic way ahead/way behind situation. If I'm ahead, he has, at most 4 outs, but probably 3 outs, or he's close to drawing dead. Plus if I'm ahead I will likely have no problem getting his stack if he has a decent ace or something like that, but he will probably not stack off with two pair hands after I show so much strength by continuing with this hand. On the other hand, if I'm behind I have 3 outs to the nuts. If he has A4 or 44 and I spike my king on the turn I'm getting the rest of his money. Let me also point out that he and I are the deepest stacks at the table. I had about 800 at the start of the hand and he about 650. So there is a lot of money to lose here. If he were a short stack, oh well, we just get it in and if I'm beat I'm beat. But I'm not ready to stack off here. And, with be calling and showing huge strength I'll get to see his reaction on the turn, because this guy was a bit of an emotional player, so in such a big pot he couldn't hold back. However, my gut instinct told me I was beat. That tipped the scale toward the fold, but then my stupid emotional side came in and told me that folding AK on this flop would be incredibly weak. Plus I was a little tilted from making a couple of suspect laydowns earlier in the game, so I wasn't about to be "weak" again. Not a good reason at all, but its true.
So I called the 200. As I'm calling the bettor says "I'm already boated up man". My instincts agree, but he could still be lying, so no change in plans yet. To my surprise and horror a lady in the SB called as well. Now she was a bit of a loose-aggressive bad player. So, I don't think she has a full house yet, even though its slightly possible she'd slowplay. I just didn't think it was likely she would. But I know its also unlikely she's a kamakazi. Its slightly possible she has a hand like KK or QQ that she couldn't raise with pre-flop (because of the wuss poker), but I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it. My gut feeling is that her most likely hand is an A-x that she isn't smart enough to fold. What's wrong with that you say? Well, if my read is right I know now where all four aces are and the guy who bet on the flop doesn't have one. Now he basically has 44 or some BS hand.
The turn is the 8h. Now, to squash all doubts, UTG +1 bets the max again, quickly. This alone tells me that I'm likely beat. But just to make sure he turns over 44. Shocked, I'm now faced with a math decision. I have 3 outs to the nuts, plus 3 more outs if the lady doesn't have A-8. So with 6 outs I need basically 7 to 1 pot odds to proceed. There was 130 in preflop + 600 on the flop + 200 more on the turn + plus he has 200 more in his stack that I'm likely to get if I get there with my king, but not likely to get if the 8 shows up. That leaves me with about 5.5 to 1 pot odds, not nearly enough, so I fold. The lady also folds, claiming she had AJ.
Now, this is where the fun begins, the bettor now claims that he did that because he was scared of us boating up in the hand to outdraw his. The pot was big enough, so he just wanted to take it down right then and there. I am a little tilted right now, so I inform him that this is terrible poker. Against my hand alone he's about 85% to win on the turn. With two opponents he drops down to 76%. He disagrees because he has so many cards to dodged (9 I inform him), and amazingly, people at the table are agreeing with him! WTF? Do these people hate money? For every dollar he puts in the pot on the turn and gets called he gets 1.76 back. Translate that to my stack, we had about 400 left. That means that he was entitled to $304 dollars that he didn't get because he was scared. Honestly, that's like lighting money on fire.
Oh well, I guess I can't complain too much. Because he played like a huge wuss I saved that money (a lot of good it did me). If he had played the pot like a real player here's how the hand would have gone down, he would have limped, I would have put in a big raise, which he was likely to call (maybe not). The lady would have called too. The flop would have come down as above and it would have likely been checked to me, and I would have bet a good amount, which the lady would have possibly raised, he would have either raised or called, and I would have likely got it all in because now his range is much, much wider. He would have doubled or tripled up.
Anyways, sorry this was long, but the hand was so interesting. I'm a bit frustrated that I didn't just fold the flop, but its a bit hard to lay down AK on the AA4 flop. Still though, I think I could have. I'm better than that. I lost 200 I didn't have to. And that is very frustrating.
Anyways, no bad beat stories, just a weird one: 2/3/5, 5-200 spread limit game at Bay 101. UTG straddles for 10. In this game they have a 3 raise cap in this game, so when someone straddles some of the people like to min-raise before it gets to the straddler, so they can't raise. Now, first of all, this is stupid. I saw a guy do this with pocket queens. Are you kidding me? When the buy in is 40bbs only, I'm praying the straddler raises so I can get all my chips in. To me, this is just scared poker.
Anyways, UTG +1 raises to 15, and the next players raises to 20, so its capped. A couple of more callers and its to me on the button and I find AKo. Frustrated, I call. The blinds and straddler call. So the pot is 6 or 7 ways for 20 each, about 130 in the pot. Flop comes A-A-4, rainbow. Checks to UTG +1 and he bets the max, 200. Folds to me. Now I have two thoughts going through my head. First off, I have trips with the top kicker and because of their stupid min-raise, wuss poker they have no idea what I have. So, if I were to assign them a range I am way ahead of it. I have the 3rd nuts. However, my spidey-senses are going a little crazy on this one. This guy had never bet that much like this. Its a huge over-bet. Usually these people have no concept of the size of the pot, so they are chronic under-bettors. So why is he over-betting like this now? Would he really do that with A9 or some stupid two pair hand like 88? It just doesn't make sense. Of course, this guy was a bit of a goofball, so plays that don't make sense aren't completely out of the ballpark, which we'll see soon. Two hands that make some sense are A4 and 44 because they realize that with such a big field its very possible someone has an ace, and would have a hard time folding, so they are getting huge value on a big bet. Of course, these two hands happen to be the only two that beat me.
So what to do? I wasn't ready to fold just yet, especially since no one called in between, leading me to believe that there was still an ace out there, so A-x was still in his range. However, this was a classic way ahead/way behind situation. If I'm ahead, he has, at most 4 outs, but probably 3 outs, or he's close to drawing dead. Plus if I'm ahead I will likely have no problem getting his stack if he has a decent ace or something like that, but he will probably not stack off with two pair hands after I show so much strength by continuing with this hand. On the other hand, if I'm behind I have 3 outs to the nuts. If he has A4 or 44 and I spike my king on the turn I'm getting the rest of his money. Let me also point out that he and I are the deepest stacks at the table. I had about 800 at the start of the hand and he about 650. So there is a lot of money to lose here. If he were a short stack, oh well, we just get it in and if I'm beat I'm beat. But I'm not ready to stack off here. And, with be calling and showing huge strength I'll get to see his reaction on the turn, because this guy was a bit of an emotional player, so in such a big pot he couldn't hold back. However, my gut instinct told me I was beat. That tipped the scale toward the fold, but then my stupid emotional side came in and told me that folding AK on this flop would be incredibly weak. Plus I was a little tilted from making a couple of suspect laydowns earlier in the game, so I wasn't about to be "weak" again. Not a good reason at all, but its true.
So I called the 200. As I'm calling the bettor says "I'm already boated up man". My instincts agree, but he could still be lying, so no change in plans yet. To my surprise and horror a lady in the SB called as well. Now she was a bit of a loose-aggressive bad player. So, I don't think she has a full house yet, even though its slightly possible she'd slowplay. I just didn't think it was likely she would. But I know its also unlikely she's a kamakazi. Its slightly possible she has a hand like KK or QQ that she couldn't raise with pre-flop (because of the wuss poker), but I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it. My gut feeling is that her most likely hand is an A-x that she isn't smart enough to fold. What's wrong with that you say? Well, if my read is right I know now where all four aces are and the guy who bet on the flop doesn't have one. Now he basically has 44 or some BS hand.
The turn is the 8h. Now, to squash all doubts, UTG +1 bets the max again, quickly. This alone tells me that I'm likely beat. But just to make sure he turns over 44. Shocked, I'm now faced with a math decision. I have 3 outs to the nuts, plus 3 more outs if the lady doesn't have A-8. So with 6 outs I need basically 7 to 1 pot odds to proceed. There was 130 in preflop + 600 on the flop + 200 more on the turn + plus he has 200 more in his stack that I'm likely to get if I get there with my king, but not likely to get if the 8 shows up. That leaves me with about 5.5 to 1 pot odds, not nearly enough, so I fold. The lady also folds, claiming she had AJ.
Now, this is where the fun begins, the bettor now claims that he did that because he was scared of us boating up in the hand to outdraw his. The pot was big enough, so he just wanted to take it down right then and there. I am a little tilted right now, so I inform him that this is terrible poker. Against my hand alone he's about 85% to win on the turn. With two opponents he drops down to 76%. He disagrees because he has so many cards to dodged (9 I inform him), and amazingly, people at the table are agreeing with him! WTF? Do these people hate money? For every dollar he puts in the pot on the turn and gets called he gets 1.76 back. Translate that to my stack, we had about 400 left. That means that he was entitled to $304 dollars that he didn't get because he was scared. Honestly, that's like lighting money on fire.
Oh well, I guess I can't complain too much. Because he played like a huge wuss I saved that money (a lot of good it did me). If he had played the pot like a real player here's how the hand would have gone down, he would have limped, I would have put in a big raise, which he was likely to call (maybe not). The lady would have called too. The flop would have come down as above and it would have likely been checked to me, and I would have bet a good amount, which the lady would have possibly raised, he would have either raised or called, and I would have likely got it all in because now his range is much, much wider. He would have doubled or tripled up.
Anyways, sorry this was long, but the hand was so interesting. I'm a bit frustrated that I didn't just fold the flop, but its a bit hard to lay down AK on the AA4 flop. Still though, I think I could have. I'm better than that. I lost 200 I didn't have to. And that is very frustrating.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Amber Alert
There was an amber alert issued for a car the exact same make and model as mine. Perhaps I'm a kidnapper on my birthday?
We are here in line for the new Indiana Jones flick and already I'm tired. Oi, I'm getting old. So far this birthday has been ok. Catherine and Daniel Negreanu have made it exciting. She is just the sweetest, most wonderful girl. She certainly is my favorite.
Not sure if I mentioned this, but I'm not going to my 10 year high school reunion. I'm just too cynical for all of that. Its sad in a lot of ways, but probably for the best.
Anyways, I wish my darling and I could walk around this shopping center that has become a key setting in our lives, but we are married to this line until my 28th birthday is no more.
This weekend we go to play poker again. Wish us luck.
We are here in line for the new Indiana Jones flick and already I'm tired. Oi, I'm getting old. So far this birthday has been ok. Catherine and Daniel Negreanu have made it exciting. She is just the sweetest, most wonderful girl. She certainly is my favorite.
Not sure if I mentioned this, but I'm not going to my 10 year high school reunion. I'm just too cynical for all of that. Its sad in a lot of ways, but probably for the best.
Anyways, I wish my darling and I could walk around this shopping center that has become a key setting in our lives, but we are married to this line until my 28th birthday is no more.
This weekend we go to play poker again. Wish us luck.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
The Digging Begins Today
So I made my second cash in a multi-table tournament online. It was another 8 dollar tournament, but this time it was a satellite to a WSOP Main Event super satellite. 84 started, the top four paid, and the top three got the seat in the super-satellite. I finished a disappointing fourth after a bad beat where I caught a guy bluffing, but he still won. Oh well. Perhaps that one river card cost me millions...but probably not. All in all though I'm happy with my play. I've noticed a disturbing trend in cash games though, my losing sessions have been worse than my winning sessions. I seem to be losing on a session per session basis more than I'm winning. I am still a winner in the games, but I'm certainly not crushing them. I need to figure out what I'm doing wrong here so I can change this.
Tomorrow's my birthday. Already I got a dope Johnny Cash hoodie from my wonderful wife and I got a Bevmo gift certificate from my parents, which I used to get some good booz. Tomorrow night we are going out to the dinner, then we will see the new Indiana Jones. I hope its good.
Catherine and I are starting to read the Chronicles of Narnia together. She hasn't red the entire series yet, so we thought it would be a good idea. We started the first one and its like a warm blanket. So comforting. But its also challenging at the same time. I'm excited to see where this goes.
10 days until the world series starts.
Tomorrow's my birthday. Already I got a dope Johnny Cash hoodie from my wonderful wife and I got a Bevmo gift certificate from my parents, which I used to get some good booz. Tomorrow night we are going out to the dinner, then we will see the new Indiana Jones. I hope its good.
Catherine and I are starting to read the Chronicles of Narnia together. She hasn't red the entire series yet, so we thought it would be a good idea. We started the first one and its like a warm blanket. So comforting. But its also challenging at the same time. I'm excited to see where this goes.
10 days until the world series starts.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
back in my little town
We just got back from a wonderful trip to Disneyland. Catherine and I drove down there Friday morning and stayed until Monday afternoon. We were looking for a relaxing trip to help us unwind from all the things we've been dealing with and that's just what we got. Honestly, it was close to perfect. Just what we needed.
I made my first significant cash in an online poker tournament. I got 3rd place out of 90-something entrants in an $8 tournament. Obviously it wasn't life changing money, but still it was morale boosting. I got really lucky in the tournament, as I was crippled early on, with only 2 BBs, but was able to build up to being the chip leader with 3 left. But the blinds were big enough that if you didn't get lucky you wouldn't win, and I didn't get lucky at the right times, so I left in 3rd. Oh well, like I said, morale boosting. Our bankroll is close to $1k again, so we will hopefully be heading to a live card club soon where we can make some real money.
One thing about the WSOP main event final table. If you haven't heard about it, google is your friend. But after a lot of thinking and listening to both sides I've decided that I like the idea and I think it should be supported whole-heartedly. Yes, there are some questions about it ruining the integrity of the event, but, in my opinion, the integrity of the event is already in question. I mean, when was the last time we considered the winner the "world champion"? The WSOP main event is a marketing tool for poker. Yes, there is some nostalgia involved, but really, we can't say that it decides who the best really is. So why not use this tournament to its greatest advantage?
Anyways, back to work.
I made my first significant cash in an online poker tournament. I got 3rd place out of 90-something entrants in an $8 tournament. Obviously it wasn't life changing money, but still it was morale boosting. I got really lucky in the tournament, as I was crippled early on, with only 2 BBs, but was able to build up to being the chip leader with 3 left. But the blinds were big enough that if you didn't get lucky you wouldn't win, and I didn't get lucky at the right times, so I left in 3rd. Oh well, like I said, morale boosting. Our bankroll is close to $1k again, so we will hopefully be heading to a live card club soon where we can make some real money.
One thing about the WSOP main event final table. If you haven't heard about it, google is your friend. But after a lot of thinking and listening to both sides I've decided that I like the idea and I think it should be supported whole-heartedly. Yes, there are some questions about it ruining the integrity of the event, but, in my opinion, the integrity of the event is already in question. I mean, when was the last time we considered the winner the "world champion"? The WSOP main event is a marketing tool for poker. Yes, there is some nostalgia involved, but really, we can't say that it decides who the best really is. So why not use this tournament to its greatest advantage?
Anyways, back to work.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Sitting in class
I think I figured out how to blog from my phone. If you are reading this then I have been successful.
I have much to say but not much time to say it. Here are some highlights:
We are going to Disneyland in a couple of days.
I believe that the new idea for the World Series of Poker main event final table is a good one, or is at least one that poker players should support.
Lots of changes at work, good, bad, and indifferent.
My wife is still struggling but we will get through it and I am so proud of her.
New record I am enjoying - Oh, Sleeper. When I am God
My thoughts on Ironman - It was good.
I have much to say but not much time to say it. Here are some highlights:
We are going to Disneyland in a couple of days.
I believe that the new idea for the World Series of Poker main event final table is a good one, or is at least one that poker players should support.
Lots of changes at work, good, bad, and indifferent.
My wife is still struggling but we will get through it and I am so proud of her.
New record I am enjoying - Oh, Sleeper. When I am God
My thoughts on Ironman - It was good.
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